Chess · resolved market
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a97996dee2697281f841e7d52aa2c86cb2c75b838dc2f26c56c654873d3821e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakamuraof Nakamura, So
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed So | 9c | 5,623$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.3 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed So | 1c | 4,918$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 175 | 7.4%13 W · 162 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed So | 10c | 1,976$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.84 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 29cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed So | 13c | 1,363$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.02 | 123 | 13%16 W · 107 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…1987backed So | 4c | 461.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed So | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked So | 14c | 292.54$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81b3…0719backed So | 6c | 230.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0230…0f71backed So | 11c | 177.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed So | 13c | 164.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…64b8backed Nakamura | 60c | 140$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe1…f8fabacked So | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc853…9d37backed So | 13c | 93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Nakamura | 76c | 65.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d70…8691backed So | 39c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Nakamura | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2040…956ebacked Nakamura | 72c | 27.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d8…e6afbacked Nakamura | 66c | 27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Nakamura | 77c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.