TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,416
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,416 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c68…7936backed Yes56c1,203$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.1410784.1%90 W · 17 L+30.1wins+0.28per pick56cpaid+66%equal weight75+0.23 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes24c904.46$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.838,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a19…3c95backed No75c829.23$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.2142857%244 W · 184 L+8.9wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c443.32$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.9412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b0…298fbacked Yes27c425.82$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.8814626%38 W · 108 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes59c408.61$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.195,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No69c302.52$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.992,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c41…6275backed No30c295.14$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.826327.8%73 W · 190 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-4.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c285.79$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.5217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x06c2…184fbacked Yes32c278.88$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.033842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+68.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No18c194.52$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.621429.4%63 W · 151 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108a…8159backed Yes27c174.26$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.9658732.9%193 W · 394 L+34.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafc4…daa1backed No29c161.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.221526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick21cpaid-34.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xde8b…612fbacked Yes74c156.53$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.052982.8%24 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+33.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c150.35$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7383360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe689…159fbacked Yes28c150.29$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.6220342.9%87 W · 116 L+20.8wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+55.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3602…98dfbacked Yes25c136.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.555437%20 W · 34 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+34%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No19c120.18$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.357,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd50c…3360backed Yes29c111.73$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9628142%118 W · 163 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+10.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No75c102.8$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.212,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes21c99.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c98.43$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.074,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes77c93.18$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.7910780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes33c88.75$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.359,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77db…af03backed No75c81.44$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.084178%32 W · 9 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick63cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes17c80.76$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.051,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf31…3255backed Yes14c78.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.543850%19 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d8…ae11backed Yes76c77.27$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.721566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c72$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…a190backed No80c65.56$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.052,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfddb…4b77backed No78c63.04$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.881861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No23c62.7$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3871823.4%168 W · 550 L-26.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfab6…f3e1backed No79c62.29$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.933246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No41c61.21$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7309…95bdbacked Yes32c57.42$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8511124.3%27 W · 84 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a62…1ccebacked No73c56.51$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac1…1a0ebacked Yes36c56.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.143537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid+14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes48c55.85$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2618668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes27c55.64$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4198236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes26c54.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.132646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes37c51.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.752,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c78…2ab1backed No68c50.25$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.32825%2 W · 6 L-2.7wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-64.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x902c…db6cbacked Yes25c49.93$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-49.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd399…4517backed Yes54c49.57$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.84161%25 W · 16 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+41.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes26c48.98$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No73c47.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef60…d6c2backed Yes40c47.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0228517.9%51 W · 234 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…137ebacked No66c45.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3513663.2%86 W · 50 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f16…063dbacked Yes34c45.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.923348.5%16 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab59…aba6backed No73c44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.12520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfe6…1bfabacked No67c43.26$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9811741%48 W · 69 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No61c42.63$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.191,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x380b…09d2backed No72c41.94$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.23944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcce…65afbacked No68c41.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3327771.5%198 W · 79 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No71c41.04$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2888973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes32c39.88$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.121,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No79c39.86$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.457659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No71c39.65$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2698571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes34c37.48$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5999949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7af6…8dfbbacked No73c36.97$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.99862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No77c32.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9262770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d72…b577backed Yes77c31.67$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2490…11a3backed No78c29.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.857061.4%43 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No76c29.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.352571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea0d…c1b6backed No77c28.79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2821676.4%165 W · 51 L+12.5wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes77c28.02$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.561,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc52a…e37abacked No78c27.39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3818272%131 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick73cpaid-1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x27c7…4399backed No70c27.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.13560%21 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba0a…8ea3backed Yes78c25.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.523568.6%24 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+26.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8162…1a48backed Yes61c24.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.511968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No65c24$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6799961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79f4…8812backed No69c23.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.055060%30 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No68c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.964,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c9…d2b8backed No71c21.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553547.5%254 W · 281 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.293034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x56ac…fcc5backed Yes79c19.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+55.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No78c18.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.751,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No75c16.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7248672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb69b…368ebacked No67c16.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7327560%165 W · 110 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x625f…5c20backed No78c15.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.239666.7%64 W · 32 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.