Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5abd7c94dc84dc2df56610a437baa6ad26d20c69fae46a15ebbef8bf43bde08e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,101
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,101 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Under | 28c | 185.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ea…ae46backed Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 57 | 71.9%41 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Over | 21c | 138.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.72 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb654…7be3backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa77…bf95backed Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 259 | 53.3%138 W · 121 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2a…e923backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…9f48backed Over | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Under | 22c | 90.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed Over | 65c | 50.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…f04ebacked Under | 51c | 41.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 111 | 51.4%57 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…570bbacked Under | 54c | 27.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8f…b302backed Over | 72c | 27.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69b9…a5d5backed Over | 45c | 24.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Under | 51c | 24.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 427 | 67%286 W · 141 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 3.5this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)Team Yandex won
- Game Handicap: TY (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)LGD Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.