Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63c2966510375c2da806432913622e1fafad425355361da7f697cef2c24c17f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Yandexof Team Yandex, LGD Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Team Yandex | 51c | 1,559$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa7…003fbacked LGD Gaming | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.99 | 450 | 52.4%236 W · 214 L | +13.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af1…d739backed LGD Gaming | 48c | 979.23$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.03 | 226 | 44.7%101 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe5…d99abacked LGD Gaming | 51c | 600$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303 | 386 | 49.5%191 W · 195 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed LGD Gaming | 45c | 524.09$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.41 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Team Yandex | 22c | 511.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.82 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Team Yandex | 22c | 488.68$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.17 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked LGD Gaming | 33c | 462.24$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.24 | 360 | 41.4%149 W · 211 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…f9c8backed Team Yandex | 67c | 303.77$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.82 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Team Yandex | 48c | 296.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed Team Yandex | 55c | 266.69$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9e…fbfdbacked Team Yandex | 66c | 226.87$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.87 | 131 | 48.1%63 W · 68 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a74…6cd2backed Team Yandex | 47c | 220$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.6 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2af…e3bcbacked Team Yandex | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed LGD Gaming | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed LGD Gaming | 52c | 169.23$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa371…eaa5backed LGD Gaming | 52c | 157.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…c91fbacked Team Yandex | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 72 | 59.7%43 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Team Yandex | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef9…8731backed Team Yandex | 47c | 118.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 259 | 56.8%147 W · 112 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…ee7abacked LGD Gaming | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 243 | 45.3%110 W · 133 L | +15.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…e867backed LGD Gaming | 46c | 91.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed LGD Gaming | 49c | 66.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Team Yandex | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…a700backed LGD Gaming | 46c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed LGD Gaming | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…5142backed LGD Gaming | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 70.4%50 W · 21 L | +8.6wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Yandex | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…da67backed Team Yandex | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bb…cad6backed Team Yandex | 53c | 22.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TY (-1.5) vs LGD Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam PlayoffsTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 WinnerLGD Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerTeam Yandex won
- Game Handicap: TY (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5)LGD Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.