Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b03463692c0b68464e1daf0d29554cf0a1cab6e40ca692e156f5cb405b0591c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,924
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 2c | 1,011$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 576.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 14c | 425.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.58 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 396.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 6c | 316.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 303.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed Yes | 9c | 226.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 9c | 195.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 22c | 169.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 149.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 8c | 149.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5c…e8f2backed Yes | 12c | 147$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 129.87$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa6…610bbacked Yes | 22c | 116.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 22c | 113.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes | 16c | 110.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 79c | 102.55$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked Yes | 16c | 88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 16c | 76.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked Yes | 20c | 73.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 17c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 58.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 80c | 37.91$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0786…df1dbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 230 | 60.9%140 W · 90 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 80c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.