Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49b46fa2e0992a2a89752400f3714f3d44ff54be53f31771c4a3d2fc9db095cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,634
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,549
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,634 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 51c | 1,033$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 38c | 450.65$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.44 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 3c | 444.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 28c | 325.89$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.64 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 36c | 322.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 298.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 275.8$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 255.93$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 20c | 195$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.58 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 43c | 193.23$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 44c | 178.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 170.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 36c | 164.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked No | 76c | 164.4$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 49c | 156.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.05 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes | 61c | 149.85$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 36c | 149.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 68c | 145.14$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 41c | 143.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 72c | 129.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedeb…3553backed Yes | 77c | 129.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -4.8wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 78c | 127.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 80c | 125.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 123.26$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.75 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 119.31$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.8 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 31c | 118$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 45c | 111.4$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 109.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 75c | 102.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 68c | 97.95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 45c | 96.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 71c | 90.97$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 22c | 87.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 30c | 84.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 79.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 75c | 77.49$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 76.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes | 19c | 76.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 357 | 42.9%153 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.58 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 66c | 67.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 38c | 55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 45c | 53.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a36…f270backed Yes | 22c | 50.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fae…a4bebacked Yes | 30c | 50.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 82 | 28%23 W · 59 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 49.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 47c | 44.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No | 73c | 43.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x443e…12e1backed Yes | 28c | 41.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 60c | 40.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 55c | 39.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 44c | 39.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 27c | 38.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 36.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 41c | 35.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.87 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb753…5c83backed Yes | 34c | 34.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 33.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…f3c2backed Yes | 70c | 32.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 38c | 30.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked Yes | 45c | 29.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 27.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 66c | 26.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bc…1485backed Yes | 78c | 25.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 48c | 24.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 80c | 22.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa22f…af41backed No | 73c | 22.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3193…cc5abacked Yes | 69c | 22.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc01…a3b6backed No | 67c | 21.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 74c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 20.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 70c | 20.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 58c | 20.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 20.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 76c | 19.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 63c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 18.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd5…ebdcbacked No | 66c | 18.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 64 | 81.3%52 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 68c | 16.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415e…8f12backed Yes | 70c | 16.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d5…f8fdbacked Yes | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6557…8474backed Yes | 70c | 14.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 72°F or higher on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.