TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 10?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,792
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,299

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,792 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes10c566.57$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.6734624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes21c403.86$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.9417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No66c341.79$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.344,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes29c240.64$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.684,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes44c220$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.2114236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf430…f3c2backed Yes9c220$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.891952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick59cpaid+30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No69c168.21$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.811,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes15c166.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.5950648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No75c164$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.35,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes39c161.45$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.295,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77bd…e48fbacked Yes39c149.85$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.7220928.7%60 W · 149 L-45.3wins-0.22per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight28-0.19 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed No70c147.49$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.121,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc80f…6147backed Yes11c145.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.652533.7%177 W · 348 L+22.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c136.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.654,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No70c126.59$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.378,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb527…903dbacked Yes41c122.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.642326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes33c117.41$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.645236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked No62c113.5$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6456424.5%138 W · 426 L-18.3wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-31.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes25c109.94$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3673927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes59c108.88$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.6354043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No31c108.49$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8899961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9151…a93ebacked Yes18c105.92$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.311164%71 W · 40 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+70.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes28c102.33$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.335,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No67c98.16$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.234,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes24c97.22$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.684,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad8a…9d7bbacked Yes51c87.58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.047558.7%44 W · 31 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes18c85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.71,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No72c84.65$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.372,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84c3…35d4backed No76c83.84$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3721268.4%145 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4829…97ebbacked No67c81.6$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5539951.1%204 W · 195 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3149…f690backed Yes24c77$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.526100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+91.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc2a0…e1b8backed Yes32c74.7$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.951428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No73c69.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.22,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…7f7fbacked Yes28c69.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.4235742.9%153 W · 204 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes22c68.36$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.147,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc6…31bdbacked Yes24c66$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.16837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-14.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No61c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.652155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed Yes32c63.1$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.142049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No69c61.97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes28c60.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.048744.8%39 W · 48 L-9.2wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-16.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes33c59.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.4913160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes26c57.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.171,54416.3%252 W · 1,292 L+21.9wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0a3…3d40backed No76c57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.32425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No48c55.26$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.532,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x351a…f836backed Yes32c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8828649.3%141 W · 145 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes38c48.84$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0437835.4%134 W · 244 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No66c48.57$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0530168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0540…9639backed No76c44$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.44837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No73c43$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3952571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e53…254cbacked Yes47c42.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.734431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes55c42.4$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8925946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77c0…fa42backed No76c42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9230%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c40.8$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.497570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No79c40$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.416764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No40c39.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.893,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2656…a5b8backed Yes39c37.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.737524%18 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.961,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes35c34.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.164,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No70c33.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4350373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3edb…aa1ebacked No68c30.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3616968%115 W · 54 L+0.7wins0.00per pick68cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.943,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed No62c29.87$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5256721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No80c29.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.521,31376.1%999 W · 314 L+20.9wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd61…02d4backed No72c28.67$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.732548%12 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No68c28.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.119262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0xf0f8…fcf6backed No59c28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5211363.7%72 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No68c27.52$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf908…6718backed Yes45c27.3$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.984148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1502…922ebacked No77c25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.254269%29 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No79c24.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.744,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No69c22.94$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.884,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bd…940ebacked No65c22.49$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5517071.2%121 W · 49 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5848…1e49backed No63c21$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2386362.9%543 W · 320 L-1.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed Yes64c19.07$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.911,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c7…c6bdbacked No73c17.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.533764.9%24 W · 13 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick72cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8454…3587backed No79c16.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2527376.6%209 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick76cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22f…af41backed No72c16.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7412057.5%69 W · 51 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6409…9411backed No80c16.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1382562.2%513 W · 312 L-23.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No65c16.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4280957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No73c15.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5920161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9770…d57dbacked No75c14.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5148672%350 W · 136 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2755…6eacbacked No75c13.65$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.211266.7%8 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick75cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5dc…dec3backed No78c12.93$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.131,36069.3%943 W · 417 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.