College Football · resolved market
Spread: New Mexico (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b61cf2d77f8bdc5d3da725406843744720c819d238c484ad49f2df500761227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Stateof New Mexico, Colorado State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,975
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,975 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Colorado State | 49c | 30,000$14,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,300 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed New Mexico | 51c | 29,897$15,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,245.96 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Colorado State | 52c | 15,000$7,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed New Mexico | 48c | 14,904$7,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,153.85 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed New Mexico | 51c | 1,500$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Colorado State | 49c | 818$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.18 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Colorado State | 48c | 377.18$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.99 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6a…f116backed New Mexico | 54c | 369.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.79 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colorado State | 46c | 270$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Colorado State | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked New Mexico | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked New Mexico | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Colorado State | 49c | 106$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…39fdbacked Colorado State | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a3…0c69backed New Mexico | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -5.3wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed New Mexico | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colorado State | 49c | 90$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed New Mexico | 52c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc557…e530backed Colorado State | 50c | 75.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Colorado State | 49c | 69.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Colorado State | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9615…3a50backed Colorado State | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Colorado State | 50c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…bd6dbacked New Mexico | 51c | 30.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Colorado State | 51c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked New Mexico | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed New Mexico | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 58cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Colorado State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: New Mexico (-14.5)this page
- Colorado State vs. New MexicoNew Mexico won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.