College Football · resolved market
Colorado State vs. New Mexico
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ed341f529392368507b5b5e4af4ad47eeb9be31e304762d8b1e949da99150d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- New Mexicoof Colorado State, New Mexico
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $134,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $134,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Colorado State | 16c | 35,000$5,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,600 | 272 | 46%125 W · 147 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Colorado State | 7c | 7,698$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.19 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Colorado State | 15c | 7,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.97 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colorado State | 15c | 3,569$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.51 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Colorado State | 11c | 3,050$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.07 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Colorado State | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado State | 8c | 1,990$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.29 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Colorado State | 17c | 1,800$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Colorado State | 12c | 1,667$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5be…46cebacked Colorado State | 10c | 1,222$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 13cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Colorado State | 16c | 1,200$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.93 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Colorado State | 7c | 1,113$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Colorado State | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Colorado State | 13c | 781.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Colorado State | 15c | 771$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.65 | 166 | 35.5%59 W · 107 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Colorado State | 14c | 707.15$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 256 | 29.3%75 W · 181 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Colorado State | 13c | 610.79$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Colorado State | 20c | 542.58$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.24 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Colorado State | 11c | 467$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.71 | 205 | 53.7%110 W · 95 L | +14.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…a807backed Colorado State | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Colorado State | 16c | 336.43$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Colorado State | 13c | 309.32$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Colorado State | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…6c59backed Colorado State | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7623backed Colorado State | 8c | 275.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…3e3dbacked Colorado State | 8c | 248.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Colorado State | 14c | 219$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 524 | 49.4%259 W · 265 L | -2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…3e9fbacked Colorado State | 16c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…314ebacked Colorado State | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Colorado State | 15c | 199.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…e501backed Colorado State | 35c | 188$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Colorado State | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Colorado State | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Colorado State | 16c | 149.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Colorado State | 16c | 124.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 244 | 36.9%90 W · 154 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9615…3a50backed Colorado State | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Colorado State | 17c | 106.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Colorado State | 14c | 101.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Colorado State | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Colorado State | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 94 | 20.2%19 W · 75 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Colorado State | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Colorado State | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 422 | 44.5%188 W · 234 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Colorado State | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Colorado State | 13c | 89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…4356backed Colorado State | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…a5e9backed Colorado State | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7d…423fbacked Colorado State | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado State vs. New Mexicothis page
- Spread: New Mexico (-14.5)Colorado State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.