Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b6bad8c8ab8db05e3b020e5ae44530e768b54f887ad306e9fb55af26b3bbd3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,831 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6993…6f0bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,021$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f2…33e5backed Yes | 40c | 700$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4c…fa5fbacked No | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 25c | 581.22$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.61 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 22c | 494$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 393.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 248.62$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 30c | 222.91$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.15 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 68c | 159.34$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.38 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 70c | 139.64$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 72c | 138.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdeee…7c09backed No | 69c | 138.15$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 16c | 122$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 111.69$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 101.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 100.9$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 33c | 99.25$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 36c | 96.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 33c | 93.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 42c | 88.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 73c | 86.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 71c | 77.42$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 73.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf1…ffd5backed Yes | 39c | 63.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 36%41 W · 73 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 62.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 65c | 62.71$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 34c | 60.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 57.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 37c | 53.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 70c | 52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 48.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 46.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790a…5afcbacked No | 62c | 42.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.07 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 31c | 40.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 58c | 38.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 75c | 35.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…8a87backed Yes | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 71c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 30.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…f159backed No | 70c | 25.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 64c | 25.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed No | 69c | 23.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 22.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…4990backed No | 61c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xca23…6080backed No | 71c | 21.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39da…5318backed No | 68c | 21.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2044…2fc5backed No | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 18.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 60c | 16.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed No | 66c | 15.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 72c | 14.46$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41d0…a837backed No | 71c | 14.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 59 | 62.7%37 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 55°F or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 56-57°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 58-59°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.