Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b9194357d97f3976f235663e7208bbf496fb54bd51b5cdd19fb9d1488dc3ffa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $284,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $246,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $284,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 1c | 79,759$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.44 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…a37cbacked Yes | 1c | 19,448$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 18,273$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.93 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…33e2backed Yes | 1c | 14,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 13,036$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…4e83backed Yes | 1c | 7,966$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 5,703$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8824…5c8bbacked Yes | 2c | 4,392$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,754$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.24 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…536ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,614$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,413$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6e…ac25backed Yes | 1c | 3,300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…e231backed Yes | 1c | 2,802$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…4d30backed Yes | 1c | 2,352$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 2,161$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc9…d7b7backed Yes | 1c | 1,971$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,535$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…87d7backed Yes | 1c | 1,507$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd58…9e53backed Yes | 1c | 1,399$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,361$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,262$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes | 1c | 1,205$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1a…f3c9backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…cbd0backed Yes | 1c | 895.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.10 in April?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.