Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49f92406b4c34ac80dc168ad0a11d833e94799cb7eb35d41359d394be178274f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $388,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $361,066
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $388,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda6b…a403backed Yes | 4c | 85,091$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,056.77 | 62 | 0%0 W · 62 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 5c | 84,603$4,428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,427.88 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 27,695$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.6 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 4c | 12,924$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.57 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…a912backed Yes | 1c | 11,200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 4c | 10,454$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.94 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 8,604$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…d30bbacked Yes | 5c | 7,264$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.46 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…7b4cbacked Yes | 1c | 5,737$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25fd…af4dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,683$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe893…4e83backed Yes | 4c | 4,324$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.52 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f6…e504backed Yes | 1c | 3,600$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 6cpaid | +191.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df2…01afbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 84 | 11.9%10 W · 74 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +599.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca55…efebbacked Yes | 2c | 2,707$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7f…2f05backed Yes | 4c | 2,621$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf1…6595backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…effebacked Yes | 6c | 2,483$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…536ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,314$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,974$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85ef…3116backed Yes | 4c | 1,730$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6d…9064backed Yes | 3c | 1,392$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6877…de8abacked Yes | 6c | 1,386$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.71 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbadc…95b3backed Yes | 4c | 1,291$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,265$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…87d7backed Yes | 4c | 1,251$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 3c | 1,246$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,201$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…cbe3backed Yes | 6c | 1,201$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.14 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +474.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d6…893dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 1,099$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa107…14febacked Yes | 5c | 1,007$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167f…746bbacked Yes | 4c | 999.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…d9c9backed Yes | 3c | 999.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…89b4backed Yes | 5c | 883.62$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.79 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 856.61$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 813.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ea…0d2abacked Yes | 2c | 692.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…ef70backed Yes | 4c | 617.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef9…ca99backed Yes | 6c | 615.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…9348backed Yes | 4c | 590.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…e231backed Yes | 8c | 566.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9f…061cbacked Yes | 4c | 492.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a7…9de3backed Yes | 6c | 477.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedda…2e39backed Yes | 3c | 450.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…6b37backed Yes | 3c | 410.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 3c | 405.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 26cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x049b…5a12backed Yes | 3c | 374.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 3cpaid | +403.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6129…11c4backed Yes | 5c | 363.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 320$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 169 | 3.6%6 W · 163 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…eb58backed Yes | 7c | 254.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 5c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ca…3ca3backed Yes | 7c | 248.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980f…5b55backed Yes | 5c | 231.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd58…9e53backed Yes | 6c | 221.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5892…0121backed Yes | 6c | 220.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…7024backed Yes | 6c | 201.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a77…4fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 123.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in April?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April?No won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.10 in April?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.