MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bcea830ed90c4fc6e7cfd15cedd0fd63c9ddd6c1de56de6d5827923848363f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 40c | 5,628$2,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,376.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 5,321$3,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 2,258$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.31 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 43c | 930.23$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.23 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 9c | 810.97$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.98 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 767.63$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.46 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 661$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Over | 44c | 652.99$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.67 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 79c | 544.77$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.11 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 13c | 480.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 20c | 325$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 44c | 257.59$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.25 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Over | 44c | 221.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.08 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 46c | 217.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 43c | 216.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.68 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 17c | 211.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…1432backed Over | 57c | 211.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Under | 75c | 160$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 66c | 160$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 55c | 154.08$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 63c | 128.37$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 26c | 125$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 37c | 122.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 47c | 107.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.86 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 47c | 67.4$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed Over | 54c | 62.59$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 44c | 39.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a96…998dbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…1b09backed Under | 55c | 31.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 45c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Over | 47c | 21.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.