MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52111b8266decb223631e3e7568ca290d79c074e39447d19d979378765d5a1ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Arizona Diamondbacks, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,729
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,752
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,729 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 10,000$6,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,100 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 43c | 5,807$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,497.02 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 3,633$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 999.99$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 663.97$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.06 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 34c | 435$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 424.01$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.56 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 316.96$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 262.17$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.22 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 239.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.01 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 222.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 213.99$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 114.39$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 112.8$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 38c | 104.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.63 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 99.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 57c | 92.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 88.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 36c | 53.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc683…7483backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1024…9651backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 41.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 56.1%188 W · 147 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 143 | 58.7%84 W · 59 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdafd…1b09backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 33.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 26.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 64c | 23.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 23.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-2.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Arizona Diamondbacks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.