Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bd8754964b94815791a82166dcce7b2d48e94630342e2853b95505d4ec6c9d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 3c | 1,651$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 285.04$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.51 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed No | 7c | 278.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 42c | 139.52$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 63c | 103.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…0b69backed Yes | 46c | 102.52$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.21 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 100.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 62c | 99.06$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.34 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e2…d1d2backed Yes | 38c | 96.58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 58c | 84.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 48c | 82.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…7f70backed Yes | 59c | 81.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 45c | 78.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 46c | 74.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 58c | 74.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46e…2f80backed Yes | 45c | 66.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 55c | 52.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 43c | 49.73$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 47c | 47.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 42.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.86 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 74c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 43c | 37.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 62c | 35.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 57c | 35.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 55c | 33.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 50c | 33.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 30.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 60c | 29.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 62c | 22.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 50c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 47c | 22.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 63c | 22.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 59c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a8…1b2bbacked No | 60c | 18.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc016…89a4backed Yes | 58c | 17.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 63c | 17.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 70c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58d5…d270backed No | 80c | 13.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.