Earnings · resolved market
Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make over $15k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5bf02e4c98dff597eaeeb71b710b57359140129031570a6bce5e8a4ef9299ada
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,427
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8df8…56f6backed Yes | 73c | 3,159$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…ccbfbacked Yes | 31c | 1,700$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,170 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Yes | 13c | 1,315$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,142 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +390.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 9c | 1,000$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +176.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…ff04backed Yes | 67c | 751.25$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4492…6ab0backed No | 29c | 440$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129f…5e2abacked No | 35c | 286.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 61c | 205$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked No | 52c | 189.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa239…8a68backed No | 35c | 71.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17d5…95a6backed No | 35c | 62.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 66c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make over $15k?this page
- Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $0 and $5k?No won
- Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $10k and $15k?No won
- Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $5k and $10k?No won
- Will MrBeast not say how much his Twitter post with over 124m views made?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.