Earnings · resolved market
Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $0 and $5k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4f2e923e78540bcf674d741ad1f13b29ed83a3dc3926a37807da6030dd23936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e03…dd32backed Yes | 13c | 9,863$1,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eae…ccbfbacked Yes | 40c | 5,030$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 45c | 2,553$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +390.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc3…7552backed Yes | 52c | 2,522$1,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,384$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc87…82b1backed No | 65c | 1,252$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…e414backed Yes | 5c | 1,067$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…0abebacked No | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 51c | 700$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6261…7ce4backed No | 66c | 608.15$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…af8cbacked Yes | 13c | 373.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 19c | 371.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked No | 77c | 208.85$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 31c | 200$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…40bbbacked Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 9c | 180.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +176.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f76…33c5backed Yes | 9c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $0 and $5k?this page
- Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $10k and $15k?No won
- Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make between $5k and $10k?No won
- Did MrBeast's Twitter post with over 124m views make over $15k?Yes won
- Will MrBeast not say how much his Twitter post with over 124m views made?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.