Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2055d7ae76f16ca5c60db69681840e15ed9f52162d3a49bac33ee004ec21a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,043
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,043 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 72c | 1,672$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.02 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 29c | 937.72$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.62 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 29c | 933.45$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 503.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 30c | 246.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 9c | 220$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 28c | 208.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 30c | 181$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 162.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 63c | 159.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 135$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 30c | 130$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 121.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 29c | 108$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 30c | 97.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 26c | 70.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…9b60backed Yes | 21c | 69.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 159 | 15.7%25 W · 134 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…52c7backed Yes | 41c | 68.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e97…7773backed No | 76c | 66.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…95f5backed Yes | 31c | 66.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 71c | 58.01$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d6b7backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 274 | 61.7%169 W · 105 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed Yes | 30c | 40.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ec…42f8backed No | 72c | 37.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 30c | 34.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 74c | 32.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf745…e141backed Yes | 38c | 31.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 70c | 18.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 79c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…ed5dbacked No | 71c | 16.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 98°F or higher on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.