Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdafbbd112bc4f090a01628a937028742969fb92a14d2d25f1e88e3cb35820a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9a96…286bbacked Yes | 53c | 414.07$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.13 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +122.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 43c | 342.19$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.56 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 25c | 317.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 41c | 309.14$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 61c | 249.67$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.63 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 42c | 219.8$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.57 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 33c | 208.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.19 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 186.06$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 67c | 182.35$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.43 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…7d4fbacked Yes | 28c | 182.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 485 | 23.7%115 W · 370 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 59c | 180.52$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 43c | 179.53$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 79c | 158.63$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 79c | 158$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 156.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2330…ed99backed Yes | 51c | 147.6$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 39c | 137.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e04…80babacked Yes | 52c | 127.93$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 18c | 127$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.52 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 58c | 126.06$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 61c | 121.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 37c | 120.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 31c | 113.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 59c | 108.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.72 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 58c | 108.3$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 57c | 108.29$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 48c | 103.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 56c | 102.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 74c | 101.17$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 58c | 99.92$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.95 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 96.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.35 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 11c | 96.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.2 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 90$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 52c | 83.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 75c | 78.57$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 76.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 75.45$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 28c | 74.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 74.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.05 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9e…2264backed Yes | 39c | 71.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 20c | 69.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 67.38$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 58c | 64.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ec…e53abacked No | 62c | 62.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 155 | 53.5%83 W · 72 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 39c | 60.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…50c3backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 294 | 43.5%128 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 56.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 60c | 52.13$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 35c | 51.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 46.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 57c | 44.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 43.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed Yes | 38c | 41.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 40.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 44c | 40.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 35c | 39.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 58c | 39.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 42c | 38.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…3823backed Yes | 39c | 35.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.46 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd3…026dbacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f8…c055backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed Yes | 41c | 26.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a60…7b81backed Yes | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 25.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 56c | 23.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 69c | 22.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 58c | 21.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 59c | 20.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 74c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 73c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 78c | 13.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 98°F or higher on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on July 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.