Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Draxl vs Krueger
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2bac1de557a4372d395b80f98805d937598b46b8af4758ff9ccb3543d1dcb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Draxlof Draxl, Krueger
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,137
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…8809backed Krueger | 44c | 4,988$2,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,194.74 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a2b…7c68backed Draxl | 56c | 4,372$2,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,923.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4641…672bbacked Draxl | 56c | 616.48$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Krueger | 12c | 283$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 321 | 31.2%100 W · 221 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Krueger | 13c | 174.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Krueger | 20c | 159$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Draxl | 74c | 53.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 653 | 46.4%303 W · 350 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Draxl | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1,091 | 60.2%657 W · 434 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Draxl | 72c | 28.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 375 | 49.1%184 W · 191 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Draxl | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af3…a37abacked Draxl | 76c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Draxl vs Kruegerthis page
- Set Handicap: Draxl (-1.5) vs Krueger (+1.5)Krueger won
- US Men's Clay Court Championships, Qualification: Liam Draxl vs Mitchell KruegerLiam Draxl won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.