Tennis · resolved market
Hangzhou Open: Corentin Moutet vs Arthur Cazaux
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c3ba452e72760b033bf8fb5f8f27c7b8595734e8fbfabc8e01b0c7df06e7c02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moutetof Moutet, Cazaux
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,139
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,139 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Moutet | 42c | 3,476$1,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.28 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Cazaux | 43c | 3,188$1,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,357.73 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Cazaux | 53c | 1,618$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.34 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…3f29backed Cazaux | 75c | 1,100$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Cazaux | 62c | 765.2$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.37 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Moutet | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.47 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7804…7025backed Moutet | 55c | 500$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Moutet | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Cazaux | 60c | 250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa263…6cf0backed Moutet | 31c | 193.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.55 | 175 | 38.3%67 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f87…4919backed Moutet | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…d40dbacked Cazaux | 53c | 132.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Cazaux | 64c | 115$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Cazaux | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Moutet | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed Cazaux | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cazaux | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Moutet | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cazaux | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.