Tennis · resolved market
Boss Open: Tien vs. Nakashima
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c76cd13f22f4b794a9962ed78587596656f164f144203fe4a738e38733cdc23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nakashimaof Tien, Nakashima
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,213
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31c8…c481backed Nakashima | 73c | 12,800$9,344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,456 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Tien | 27c | 11,336$3,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060.75 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd5…d06bbacked Tien | 30c | 4,948$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,473.68 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Nakashima | 69c | 2,636$1,816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.32 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47b1…1306backed Tien | 29c | 1,724$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Tien | 27c | 1,435$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.62 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee2a…6aaabacked Nakashima | 73c | 1,407$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Nakashima | 71c | 1,324$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27be…e3a9backed Tien | 30c | 1,005$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Nakashima | 74c | 1,000$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.4 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…3501backed Nakashima | 73c | 666$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…472abacked Nakashima | 73c | 666$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.82 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Tien | 27c | 559.83$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.15 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Tien | 30c | 501.03$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Tien | 28c | 499.76$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.32 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Nakashima | 72c | 462.92$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.1 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Nakashima | 71c | 400$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Nakashima | 72c | 275.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.88 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Tien | 26c | 181.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nakashima | 71c | 179$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d4…8d3cbacked Nakashima | 77c | 165$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.55 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Tien | 29c | 138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.02 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nakashima | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Tien | 28c | 101.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Tien | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Nakashima | 73c | 71.6$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…3b7ebacked Nakashima | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 130 | 44.6%58 W · 72 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Tien | 28c | 42.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Nakashima | 72c | 39.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fa…c2acbacked Nakashima | 70c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Nakashima | 70c | 26.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86d9…f7edbacked Nakashima | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.