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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 26?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$11,065
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,338

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,065 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b67…8c99backed No76c524.3$399 inWon+$125.243778.4%29 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick71cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes6c422.05$23 inLost-$23.338131%118 W · 263 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes24c299.98$71 inLost-$70.9936218.8%68 W · 294 L+18.5wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes25c289.7$72 inLost-$72.1176322.9%175 W · 588 L-34.2wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-46.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes22c232.72$52 inLost-$51.836835.3%24 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes19c222.92$41 inLost-$41.3757827.9%161 W · 417 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x567a…b24cbacked Yes12c200$24 inLost-$2415327.5%42 W · 111 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6c0d…0885backed Yes12c157.89$19 inLost-$19.165334%18 W · 35 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+82.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No75c133.33$100 inWon+$33.332,20162.2%1,370 W · 831 L-0.5wins0.00per pick62cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes13c129.51$17 inLost-$17.292145.6%420 W · 501 L-29.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed Yes25c120$30 inLost-$301,31454%709 W · 605 L-26.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x581e…bdeabacked Yes21c120$25 inLost-$25.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes13c117.2$15 inLost-$14.7712,54546.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L-39.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba7…3d88backed No73c117$85 inWon+$31.5952567%352 W · 173 L+1.9wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbb7…a11abacked No77c115$88 inWon+$26.751,48857.3%853 W · 635 L+46.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes27c112.78$30 inLost-$301656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa7d9…c3cbbacked No73c110$80 inWon+$29.755345.3%24 W · 29 L-5.4wins-0.10per pick55cpaid-19.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes32c106.77$34 inLost-$34.1148639.7%193 W · 293 L+21.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa982…6fd1backed Yes25c101.72$25 inLost-$25.434535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes14c94.99$13 inLost-$13.228840.9%36 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x55ca…498fbacked Yes12c92.38$11 inLost-$10.634257.1%24 W · 18 L+9.3wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+51.9%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No72c88.35$64 inWon+$24.7410,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes27c75.91$21 inLost-$20.681,18938.2%454 W · 735 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes27c73.99$20 inLost-$19.9858850.9%299 W · 289 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes22c65.23$14 inLost-$14.3810,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes27c56.25$15 inLost-$15.1349259.6%293 W · 199 L+22.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked No77c53$41 inWon+$12.4514262.7%89 W · 53 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46f7…ded2backed No78c49.19$38 inWon+$10.8217262.8%108 W · 64 L+14.9wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf13…b91abacked No78c42.36$33 inWon+$9.455942.6%238 W · 321 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No78c31.99$25 inWon+$7.045,19368.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L+70.8wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe412…4356backed No78c30$23 inWon+$6.67631.6%24 W · 52 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No76c27$20 inWon+$6.581,01451.6%523 W · 491 L+108.5wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No75c26.04$19 inWon+$6.6112,97520.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L-2,698.0wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-65.3%equal weight27-0.21 edge/pick
0x6288…fd46backed No77c20.56$16 inWon+$4.782466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa51…6199backed No77c20.21$16 inWon+$4.6570675.5%533 W · 173 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick73cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked No72c20$14 inWon+$5.6839070.5%275 W · 115 L+65.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No80c18.31$15 inWon+$3.662,23356%1,250 W · 983 L+47.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38a1…3154backed No76c17.73$13 inWon+$4.262,21574%1,638 W · 577 L+18.3wins+0.01per pick73cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No76c17.3$13 inWon+$4.242,22659.1%1,316 W · 910 L+110.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.