Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6fa584197ab6818ee7c3be58a7429789fcb7babef817d5d24c0e75d291823a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,415
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 31c | 240.34$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.05 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 27c | 182.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x436b…6155backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 140.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 69c | 135.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.78 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ffe…e48bbacked No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c48…1c17backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 183 | 50.8%93 W · 90 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 23c | 99.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 33c | 95.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 32c | 91.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 88.45$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 27c | 77.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 26c | 73.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25fa…e196backed Yes | 37c | 65.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 61.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c56…3ba4backed Yes | 31c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 59.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 62c | 56.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x788a…db1fbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 80c | 48.55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5330…07f8backed No | 65c | 46.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 36c | 41.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a77…3fefbacked No | 70c | 41.2$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed No | 76c | 39.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 64c | 35.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 279 | 44.4%124 W · 155 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 80c | 34.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 73c | 34.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 79c | 32.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 41c | 31.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x929b…9e67backed No | 65c | 29.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…bb39backed No | 66c | 22.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafcc…dd1dbacked No | 57c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 19.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 75c | 17.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 71 | 78.9%56 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 68c | 17.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 78c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.