Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64243bafbeae78f3c9b5ff59c2285d9595fdfab8b7bda66d2f6fe9d1fb234a09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 42c | 588.48$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.48 | 217 | 36.4%79 W · 138 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 57c | 232$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.24 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 58c | 171.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 10c | 167.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 33c | 152.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 58c | 150.74$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.43 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 30c | 131.82$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x11fb…db4fbacked Yes | 80c | 125.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 54c | 101.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8958…656dbacked No | 19c | 90.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 138 | 61.6%85 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 84.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 17c | 83.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9159…f1a8backed Yes | 57c | 83.51$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.98 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 27c | 81.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 1,014 | 51.6%523 W · 491 L | +108.5wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 56c | 77.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed No | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +24.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 51c | 74.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.31 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 36c | 73.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 986 | 51.1%504 W · 482 L | -49.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6fd1backed No | 27c | 71.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 24c | 70.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 401 | 42.4%170 W · 231 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1c…545abacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 65.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 71c | 63.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 264 | 66.7%176 W · 88 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85ac…fce6backed No | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 18c | 57.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 578 | 27.9%161 W · 417 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 56c | 53.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 48.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 35c | 41.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 2,280 | 14.7%336 W · 1,944 L | +51.5wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…140fbacked Yes | 49c | 41.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 65c | 40.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,184 | 57.4%680 W · 504 L | +24.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 247 | 56.3%139 W · 108 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4e…dba5backed Yes | 76c | 39.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ca…498fbacked Yes | 37c | 39.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +9.3wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 35.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1201…005bbacked No | 35c | 34.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 192 | 9.9%19 W · 173 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 64c | 31.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 415 | 51.3%213 W · 202 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed No | 58c | 31.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 3,649 | 53.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L | +83.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x278b…b63abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…08f6backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 52c | 28.94$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 114 | 62.3%71 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 54c | 28.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 120 | 39.2%47 W · 73 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 66c | 24.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -22.0wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 23-0.24 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 19.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 4,467 | 65.1%2,907 W · 1,560 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 30°C on August 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 29°C on August 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 31°C on August 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.