Tennis · resolved market
ITF Fano: Carl Emil Overbeck vs Marcello Serafini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cc61ccbf7fd67f729946b8595bbcba731e17f119a406eeecdd53149561aca12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carl Emil Overbeckof Carl Emil Overbeck, Marcello Serafini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Marcello Serafini | 16c | 2,416$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.38 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Marcello Serafini | 4c | 2,314$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.62 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Marcello Serafini | 3c | 509.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 1,308 | 38.9%509 W · 799 L | -23.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4087…048bbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 77c | 478$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…e6c5backed Marcello Serafini | 14c | 468.5$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.59 | 178 | 18%32 W · 146 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…4b0dbacked Marcello Serafini | 17c | 453.61$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…c784backed Marcello Serafini | 21c | 440.86$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.25 | 176 | 43.8%77 W · 99 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marcello Serafini | 13c | 431.59$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Marcello Serafini | 9c | 200.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 75c | 187$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Marcello Serafini | 14c | 150.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 225 | 52%117 W · 108 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eea…8896backed Marcello Serafini | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 76c | 108$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 71c | 105.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 559 | 41.9%234 W · 325 L | -27.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 79c | 75.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…977abacked Marcello Serafini | 16c | 70.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 76c | 50.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 455 | 66.4%302 W · 153 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b36ebacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 79c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 509 | 46.6%237 W · 272 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48f0…810bbacked Carl Emil Overbeck | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Carl Emil Overbeck | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 695 | 45.8%318 W · 377 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.