Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d0a5a14230b79900d9ef57fd1dd9beb22da129fa51b6c6931b83d67a4d47704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Hokori, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Nemesis | 66c | 1,200$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.98 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Hokori | 34c | 999.99$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac6b…7104backed Hokori | 27c | 482.6$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Nemesis | 68c | 368.66$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.97 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hokori | 11c | 286.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hokori | 27c | 252.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed Hokori | 35c | 194.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Team Nemesis | 65c | 177.57$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.15 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Hokori | 35c | 162.86$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…0491backed Hokori | 33c | 115.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.17 | 240 | 41.3%99 W · 141 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Team Nemesis | 65c | 72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…7831backed Team Nemesis | 66c | 30.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.