Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62e22ad6bdc048bedd9f85d53ae1b7efa91ed4979db760069f59bba95f31c20c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Hokori, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Hokori | 43c | 4,397$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.73 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…e409backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 1,554$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.14 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +11.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Hokori | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 122 | 17.2%21 W · 101 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Hokori | 1c | 1,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 0%0 W · 104 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team Nemesis | 63c | 1,466$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.77 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe3…ca9dbacked Hokori | 33c | 1,408$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.34 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Team Nemesis | 63c | 1,328$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.25 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Hokori | 5c | 1,296$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Hokori | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4c…1715backed Hokori | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 213 | 33.3%71 W · 142 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd525…1815backed Team Nemesis | 61c | 909.46$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.27 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Nemesis | 74c | 880.99$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.06 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed Hokori | 2c | 831.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Hokori | 38c | 758.45$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Hokori | 41c | 662.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.59 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Nemesis | 64c | 637.38$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.08 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…8ff2backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 627.7$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.85 | 476 | 46.4%221 W · 255 L | +27.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x316f…795abacked Hokori | 4c | 549$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 283 | 36.4%103 W · 180 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed Hokori | 27c | 485.23$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.19 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f5…09ddbacked Hokori | 2c | 468$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +608.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Hokori | 40c | 400$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Hokori | 33c | 324.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Hokori | 42c | 297.32$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Hokori | 40c | 260.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.1 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…cd7ebacked Team Nemesis | 59c | 260$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Hokori | 37c | 224.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.17 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Nemesis | 58c | 201.77$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c73…e6cebacked Hokori | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Team Nemesis | 75c | 190$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf346…1b8ebacked Hokori | 53c | 187.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 224 | 38.8%87 W · 137 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe123…b4ffbacked Hokori | 41c | 156.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Team Nemesis | 70c | 143.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Hokori | 35c | 140.59$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Nemesis | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.25 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 135.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd924…d06dbacked Team Nemesis | 56c | 127.83$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Hokori | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.62 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…eb73backed Team Nemesis | 67c | 53.52$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Hokori | 28c | 44.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Hokori | 49c | 40.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 176 | 36.9%65 W · 111 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2669…fa0dbacked Team Nemesis | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710b…93b0backed Hokori | 45c | 39.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 122 | 60.7%74 W · 48 L | +10.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Team Nemesis | 57c | 35.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Team Nemesis | 59c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 108 | 52.8%57 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Hokori | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 137 | 33.6%46 W · 91 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed Team Nemesis | 55c | 19.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.