UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d54d6722fd176f8b4ee9c51365b067fbc650062df76843de038295806fa3c45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc149…dc81backed Under | 51c | 4,335$2,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 49c | 2,637$1,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.78 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Over | 54c | 2,138$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,154.28 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd594…98c4backed Over | 3c | 904.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Under | 51c | 541.59$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.38 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Under | 50c | 379.91$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.96 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Over | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x782c…2445backed Under | 49c | 215.54$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…a75cbacked Under | 51c | 211.25$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.51 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Under | 49c | 203.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.94 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b6…57bebacked Over | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 48cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 152.66$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.86 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 50c | 129.1$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…6559backed Over | 54c | 117.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 116.17$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.41 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Over | 48c | 103.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.85 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 50c | 97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 52c | 77.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x724e…d6d2backed Over | 50c | 74.13$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4589…5ea9backed Over | 54c | 72.33$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fe…f286backed Over | 51c | 60.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x399c…6191backed Over | 51c | 57.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x861b…d967backed Over | 50c | 40.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…d2f5backed Under | 50c | 38.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5657…6c86backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked Over | 51c | 34.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219f…7420backed Over | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…16e6backed Over | 52c | 28.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7d…7862backed Under | 49c | 27.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Burns vs. Mike Malott (Welterweight, Main Card)Mike Malott won
- Will Gilbert Burns win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will Mike Malott win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.