NHL · resolved market
AHL: Henderson Silver Knights vs. Texas Stars
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d5ea39ca8eeb96265684d529b3273346ce546c84b49fc9c03c0b27ae44df890
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Starsof Henderson Silver Knights, Texas Stars
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 52c | 10,467$5,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,391.94 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Texas Stars | 49c | 2,222$1,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,144.33 | 334 | 47.9%160 W · 174 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Texas Stars | 49c | 2,007$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.72 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Texas Stars | 48c | 1,739$834 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$904.9 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas Stars | 49c | 1,078$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.33 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Texas Stars | 48c | 816$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.48 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Henderson Silver Knights | 53c | 564.38$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.92 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…044bbacked Texas Stars | 48c | 440.38$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Texas Stars | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Texas Stars | 49c | 306.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.12 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Texas Stars | 48c | 275$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Texas Stars | 48c | 260.19$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Texas Stars | 47c | 220.74$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.99 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40da…0b85backed Texas Stars | 48c | 207.29$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.79 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Henderson Silver Knights | 52c | 200$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…583abacked Texas Stars | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…2964backed Texas Stars | 48c | 193.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd1…553dbacked Texas Stars | 48c | 188.54$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.04 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe66b…a324backed Henderson Silver Knights | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Texas Stars | 46c | 141.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.24 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Texas Stars | 27c | 110.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b23…cad2backed Texas Stars | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Texas Stars | 48c | 98.17$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed Texas Stars | 49c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.48 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…d960backed Henderson Silver Knights | 71c | 61.24$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 366 | 62%227 W · 139 L | +39.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Texas Stars | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Texas Stars | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdab8…1bc7backed Texas Stars | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +9.5wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…41b7backed Texas Stars | 48c | 47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Texas Stars | 46c | 44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Texas Stars | 48c | 43.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Texas Stars | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Henderson Silver Knights | 77c | 32.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Texas Stars | 48c | 26.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.