Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d6eda96b5bd0d16c6af0ec54c175b20c0eebad7fe9900254316a56d60b3d96e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tiafoeof Tiafoe, Hijikata
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,950
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,950 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc905…850bbacked Tiafoe | 46c | 1,174$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.91 | 357 | 55.5%198 W · 159 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Hijikata | 54c | 729.06$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.71 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Hijikata | 54c | 721.75$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.3 | 724 | 52.6%381 W · 343 L | +34.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Hijikata | 53c | 474.55$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.6 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Tiafoe | 47c | 420$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.6 | 478 | 54.8%262 W · 216 L | +25.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Hijikata | 22c | 317.19$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.49 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Tiafoe | 45c | 303.76$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.07 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Hijikata | 28c | 289.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.65 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Tiafoe | 48c | 204.15$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tiafoe | 56c | 103.29$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Hijikata | 48c | 94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Tiafoe | 52c | 94$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tiafoe | 44c | 87.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.19 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Tiafoe | 63c | 76.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748e…f4f2backed Tiafoe | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x158a…47a7backed Tiafoe | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +104.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Tiafoe | 64c | 64.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c30…df21backed Hijikata | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Tiafoe | 46c | 56$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 138 | 30.4%42 W · 96 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1527…120ebacked Tiafoe | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c5…4739backed Hijikata | 56c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x115f…f51dbacked Hijikata | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Hijikata | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Hijikata | 56c | 48.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf08…12a3backed Hijikata | 55c | 47.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…6520backed Hijikata | 56c | 39.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 109 | 51.4%56 W · 53 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Hijikata | 55c | 25.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ce…b622backed Hijikata | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Hijikata (+1.5)this page
- Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 22.5Under won
- Hijikata vs. Tiafoe: Match O/U 23.5Under won
- Rinky Hijikata vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Hijikata vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.