Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d6ee2f0d8efb780ccbe716542c747bcd2d141737e0a5d7ff0440b6fa324ebe7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7f1…c062backed No | 44c | 113.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 120 | 57.5%69 W · 51 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 54c | 108.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.26 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 65c | 94.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 61c | 86.11$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 53c | 81.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 22c | 69.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 34c | 67.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fce…6732backed No | 22c | 54.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked No | 45c | 47.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 27c | 42.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed No | 31c | 40.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d3…415ebacked Yes | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 422 | 53.1%224 W · 198 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca1…7e1ebacked Yes | 76c | 38.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 33c | 37.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked Yes | 67c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed Yes | 70c | 35.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed Yes | 41c | 35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 71c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 45c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 26.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked No | 61c | 24.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…190dbacked Yes | 69c | 21.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 73c | 14.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on May 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on May 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on May 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.