College Football · resolved market
Spread: Iowa State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d9e2e3d5c81ac07555366cd11e827158e269de4e7b65d7df018e7ba1f5ac64d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Coloradoof Iowa State, Colorado
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Iowa State | 44c | 5,781$2,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,543.99 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa4…e9d2backed Colorado | 56c | 5,399$3,024 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,375.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Iowa State | 44c | 2,200$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Colorado | 54c | 1,091$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.92 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Colorado | 56c | 996.49$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.46 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Iowa State | 49c | 925.71$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.6 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Colorado | 51c | 925.71$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.6 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Colorado | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Colorado | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Colorado | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Iowa State | 44c | 210.35$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Colorado | 54c | 179.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ef…f8c1backed Iowa State | 46c | 130.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Iowa State | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Colorado | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Colorado | 55c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa State (-3.5)this page
- Iowa State vs. ColoradoColorado won
- Iowa State vs. Colorado: O/U 52.5Under won
- Spread: Iowa State (-2.5)Colorado won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.