South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Atlético Nacional vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5df32bbbaf42cad4981526e2add1ef21e0f54d14ff26477b2a2ddaddad0dd3ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,691 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 72c | 17,469$12,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,891.34 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 15,251$4,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,271.71 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 28c | 1,035$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.26 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 28c | 270.07$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 73c | 263$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.01 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 28c | 154.32$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Yes | 28c | 152.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 151.35$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f8…e913backed No | 73c | 119.18$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 33 | 78.8%26 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…886dbacked No | 70c | 114.88$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33ac…a435backed Yes | 28c | 101.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9952…ceb2backed Yes | 28c | 100.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 31c | 100.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 28c | 98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…1ad7backed Yes | 28c | 72.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Yes | 28c | 69.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 25c | 50.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…1f5abacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd6…05cbbacked Yes | 28c | 48.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe856…4711backed Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.27per pick | 52cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…e718backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlético Nacional vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-03-04?No won
- Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-03-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.