South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-03-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99a5d1ea9737928446ccbe407a4d1caa4e48f03a8bf56fa010406ede68874e52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,235 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 57c | 3,369$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,443.91 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6395…d69dbacked Yes | 60c | 1,999$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…12cebacked Yes | 17c | 809.95$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.99 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 42c | 384.13$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.66 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 60c | 241.9$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 40c | 206.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.52 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 75c | 187.11$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked Yes | 20c | 182.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 16c | 180.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 57 | 28.1%16 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 75c | 171.12$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 23c | 149.13$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…a7b0backed No | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 74c | 120.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fcb…4381backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 58c | 105.54$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 75c | 103.68$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 60c | 103.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 79 | 30.4%24 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…6c84backed Yes | 59c | 89.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 40c | 54.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3020…bc04backed No | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Yes | 54c | 47.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f9…e4dcbacked No | 41c | 43.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 230 | 57.4%132 W · 98 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…14f1backed Yes | 52c | 32.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320f…1420backed Yes | 59c | 25.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 51c | 23.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Yes | 50c | 23.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…ac67backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 337 | 45.4%153 W · 184 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-03-04?this page
- Will Atlético Nacional vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-03-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.