South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-03-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbaa02738dbb4d22219e5f04a8b4d88b03125c08919f27c9442dcb854ce75134
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,098 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed No | 49c | 1,030$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 73c | 895$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.3 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 56c | 565.02$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.62 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf18…09a4backed No | 15c | 422.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.86 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 53c | 405.66$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 102 | 42.2%43 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Yes | 57c | 403.55$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.49 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x478a…2deabacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0687…77bfbacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…c5c0backed Yes | 15c | 192.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +561.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 158.32$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.57 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 128.07$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc068…113dbacked Yes | 15c | 103.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 52c | 101.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.67 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…38fcbacked No | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Yes | 71c | 56.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…318ebacked Yes | 51c | 44.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88c…14f1backed Yes | 78c | 34.17$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Yes | 58c | 29.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Millonarios FC win on 2026-03-04?this page
- Will Atlético Nacional vs. Millonarios FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-03-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.