College Football · resolved market
Hawaii vs. Colorado State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5dfcdf468a0b58d36e86d1792556bf9cf2bee165cdc6c31769a2b2b668bff469
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hawaiiof Hawaii, Colorado State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Colorado State | 14c | 17,583$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,408.04 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Colorado State | 4c | 12,055$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.7 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Colorado State | 21c | 10,151$2,148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,147.55 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Colorado State | 4c | 9,369$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.29 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Colorado State | 5c | 7,987$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.29 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Hawaii | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Hawaii | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,649.98 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Colorado State | 6c | 1,845$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.05 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Colorado State | 55c | 1,364$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Colorado State | 55c | 1,262$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.1 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Colorado State | 34c | 773.88$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.98 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Colorado State | 6c | 578$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Colorado State | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Hawaii | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Colorado State | 2c | 495$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Hawaii | 46c | 479.01$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.67 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Colorado State | 54c | 465$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.1 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Hawaii | 47c | 424.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 36cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Colorado State | 4c | 399.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Colorado State | 50c | 380.09$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Colorado State | 54c | 370.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.24 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Colorado State | 55c | 312.73$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…faa8backed Hawaii | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Hawaii | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Hawaii | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf457…7a42backed Colorado State | 54c | 157.41$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Colorado State | 43c | 150.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a3…c3a6backed Colorado State | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Hawaii | 48c | 142.92$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.32 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Hawaii | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed Colorado State | 55c | 136.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Hawaii | 45c | 130$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…ae92backed Colorado State | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Colorado State | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…b2ddbacked Colorado State | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd1…009bbacked Colorado State | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed89…647bbacked Hawaii | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Colorado State | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65d3…d153backed Hawaii | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Hawaii | 43c | 93.78$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 143 | 55.2%79 W · 64 L | +12.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72b5…cb74backed Colorado State | 21c | 86.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Hawaii | 44c | 82.66$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Hawaii | 73c | 75.34$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.34 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3212…634ebacked Hawaii | 44c | 74.37$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Colorado State | 27c | 66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Colorado State | 21c | 65.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…ee9fbacked Hawaii | 74c | 50.31$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…9282backed Colorado State | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Colorado State | 55c | 49.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Hawaii | 47c | 42.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 160 | 50%80 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Colorado State | 53c | 42.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Colorado State | 26c | 40.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…a269backed Hawaii | 50c | 39.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Hawaii | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.58 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cd…a5f5backed Hawaii | 45c | 36.42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Colorado State | 55c | 35.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Hawaii | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff2…8a43backed Colorado State | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…6d68backed Colorado State | 56c | 24.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Hawaii | 44c | 24.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hawaii vs. Colorado Statethis page
- Hawaii vs. Colorado State: O/U 53.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.