Earnings · resolved market
Will Sweetgreen (SG) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e01e65c8b1131afd5c0bc6515e9a2b9ad0d3a28a628dfcc8f16c373b21df907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,179
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,563
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,179 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 71c | 913.53$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$645.77 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 27c | 700$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 44c | 243.43$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.25 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 18c | 190$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed Yes | 29c | 158.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed No | 68c | 148.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…68aebacked Yes | 24c | 134.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed Yes | 37c | 131.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed Yes | 13c | 124.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ef…ab0fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…5fb9backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f51…2019backed Yes | 31c | 97.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 174 | 41.4%72 W · 102 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 17c | 81.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed Yes | 20c | 71.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…9df1backed No | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +182.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…bb54backed Yes | 29c | 69.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087e…51c5backed Yes | 25c | 65.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 61.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked Yes | 39c | 50.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f2…3098backed Yes | 26c | 49.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93e0…a8d4backed Yes | 27c | 49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36fa…1125backed Yes | 43c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe690…f448backed No | 60c | 33.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 58c | 29.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 56c | 29.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9013backed No | 60c | 21.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…3ff6backed No | 56c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.