Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7998de6c00d788e34551fde1bbe630927ded5e88e8994188e63f54ba61d170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,300
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 12c | 289$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -11.8wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 74c | 233.77$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 205.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.73 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82d…5d1ebacked Yes | 23c | 137$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 28c | 99.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…0dd9backed Yes | 25c | 88.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 79c | 67.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 61.5$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 73c | 47.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 75c | 41.07$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe105…8a2dbacked No | 77c | 38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…ca38backed No | 77c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…1ed1backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed No | 77c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 78c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…7959backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891e…ea69backed No | 77c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…e3c9backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6061…1ff7backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RKS Raków Częstochowa vs. HŠK Zrinjski Mostar end in a draw?this page
- Will HŠK Zrinjski Mostar win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2025-12-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.