Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e7df5be97e93f8f839293a4f4ebf9d85bc8216ad5cc865a03da2c4954cf55df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,617
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 1c | 2,756$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6723…0f31backed Yes | 1c | 1,890$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 11c | 299.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 14c | 275.14$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 261.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 23c | 214.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xceb0…9e4fbacked Yes | 9c | 205.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 12c | 184.64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 21c | 178.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.14 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 21c | 171.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.47 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x116d…fbf1backed No | 63c | 152.96$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.1 | 178 | 59%105 W · 73 L | +20.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 38c | 150$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea72…b764backed No | 78c | 135.62$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f9…9f4dbacked Yes | 10c | 119.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 230 | 7.8%18 W · 212 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 118.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 10c | 117.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed No | 73c | 109.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 25c | 109.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 106.07$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.66 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 18c | 99.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…3db0backed Yes | 19c | 98.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 76.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Yes | 25c | 75.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 64c | 74.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed No | 51c | 74.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 61c | 72.79$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.66 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3389…2411backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 26c | 47.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 46.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed No | 65c | 40.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 39.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 29c | 35.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c7…d9c5backed No | 79c | 29.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 50c | 29.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 72c | 28.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 27.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 62c | 26.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd61…ebbdbacked No | 75c | 25.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 14.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.