Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x627a7639fa955e8e92bbb0c394db6ee1a6f40aefd8b7f7033dde72f4afc4c024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,921
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,969
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,921 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc22…d525backed No | 35c | 2,194$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 75c | 566.42$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.62 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 76c | 513.86$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.47 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed Yes | 73c | 510.69$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.95 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 15c | 310.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 72c | 277.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 274.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 27c | 239.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.66 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 222.41$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 33c | 207.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.87 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked Yes | 36c | 189.84$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 20c | 187$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8699…f6bebacked Yes | 11c | 180.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.04 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | +12.4wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 19c | 180$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…2555backed No | 10c | 135.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 26c | 130$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.2 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 121.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 17c | 116.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 29c | 104.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x364a…4363backed Yes | 14c | 103.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 101.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…3db0backed Yes | 24c | 99.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 28c | 92.8$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 78c | 89.34$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 79c | 88.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.26 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…d923backed No | 79c | 88.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -12.7wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 80c | 87.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 26c | 82.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…85f7backed No | 23c | 72.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 26c | 71.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 28c | 68.63$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 65c | 68.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 75c | 64.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 64$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 21c | 61.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 80c | 60.53$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…2650backed No | 74c | 58.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 88 | 77.3%68 W · 20 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 27c | 57.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.84 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 24c | 56.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 26c | 54.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6de…9452backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 84 | 28.6%24 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 68c | 42.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc41…108fbacked Yes | 73c | 38.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 73c | 32.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…b590backed Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc868…7bd7backed Yes | 42c | 26.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +5.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Yes | 73c | 24.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 75c | 23.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 21.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 80c | 21.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 72c | 20.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 18.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 14.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 19°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 20°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.