College Football · resolved market
Spread: Iowa (-16.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e98519c1dd2e20edd8f342214a2ef26622c95eb40b1b2d75f096d22d3922a95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof Iowa, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,243
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,243 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Iowa | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,340 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Michigan State | 47c | 3,448$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,812.49 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Michigan State | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Iowa | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…d649backed Iowa | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.78 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Michigan State | 48c | 664.39$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.39 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Iowa | 52c | 555$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.6 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae7…cf61backed Michigan State | 49c | 410.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.36per pick | 49cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State | 47c | 270$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.1 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Michigan State | 48c | 245.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Michigan State | 47c | 170$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.3 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Iowa | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Iowa | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Iowa | 53c | 79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Michigan State | 47c | 75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…55d3backed Michigan State | 49c | 74.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa9…bad5backed Michigan State | 49c | 23.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Iowa | 53c | 22.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Iowa | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Iowa (-16.5)this page
- Michigan State vs. IowaIowa won
- O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Iowa (-17.5)Michigan State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.