College Football · resolved market
Michigan State vs. Iowa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b36e389b4abdc0dcadbe73409d32c3c54de842496645083134fbf2cf5e1ce6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Iowaof Michigan State, Iowa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Michigan State | 29c | 16,512$4,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,783.23 | 588 | 50.2%295 W · 293 L | +23.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Iowa | 53c | 11,750$6,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,488.42 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Michigan State | 1c | 8,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +5.6wins | +0.21per pick | 2cpaid | +841.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Iowa | 53c | 6,537$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,049.71 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Michigan State | 59c | 5,333$3,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,164.07 | 262 | 44.3%116 W · 146 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Iowa | 61c | 5,145$3,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,014.28 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c81…fce3backed Michigan State | 56c | 4,000$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.86 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Michigan State | 11c | 3,846$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.01 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Michigan State | 12c | 3,573$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.72 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Michigan State | 57c | 3,416$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.87 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Iowa | 37c | 3,262$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,061.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3d…ed5dbacked Michigan State | 1c | 3,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Michigan State | 12c | 3,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Michigan State | 12c | 2,999$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.92 | 134 | 17.2%23 W · 111 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac7f…361fbacked Michigan State | 11c | 1,830$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.12 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Michigan State | 13c | 1,800$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Iowa | 40c | 1,481$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.66 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Michigan State | 53c | 1,209$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.03 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Michigan State | 12c | 1,200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.02 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Michigan State | 11c | 902.01$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.22 | 127 | 18.9%24 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Michigan State | 12c | 897.44$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.69 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f7…c4e5backed Iowa | 64c | 800$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Michigan State | 34c | 733.58$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.91 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Michigan State | 12c | 599.98$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…86f1backed Michigan State | 69c | 582.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Michigan State | 44c | 565.46$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.19 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Iowa | 24c | 551$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.76 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca3f…8078backed Michigan State | 12c | 549.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Iowa | 49c | 470.88$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.88 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Michigan State | 12c | 394.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 216 | 29.2%63 W · 153 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Iowa | 59c | 364.1$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.47 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Michigan State | 11c | 357$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Iowa | 44c | 350.69$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.66 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Michigan State | 62c | 350.67$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Michigan State | 63c | 340.06$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Iowa | 55c | 330.75$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.85 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Michigan State | 60c | 310$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.87 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…79c6backed Iowa | 53c | 240.83$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.36 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…caf5backed Michigan State | 27c | 202.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 47 | 6.4%3 W · 44 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Michigan State | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c4…bbc5backed Michigan State | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Iowa | 35c | 175$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Michigan State | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…1956backed Michigan State | 14c | 163.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -10.5wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Michigan State | 13c | 162.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 184 | 16.8%31 W · 153 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Michigan State | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 258 | 19.8%51 W · 207 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda17…d901backed Michigan State | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Michigan State | 17c | 147.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Iowa | 47c | 137.55$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.4 | 269 | 39.8%107 W · 162 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa72e…3db9backed Michigan State | 44c | 128.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Michigan State | 11c | 123.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…f4f4backed Michigan State | 55c | 101.82$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Iowa | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Iowa | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Iowa | 26c | 99.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.98 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b2…47f7backed Michigan State | 13c | 83.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b7…e360backed Iowa | 55c | 77.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +10.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +31%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed Iowa | 72c | 76.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Iowa | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Iowa | 23c | 49.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed Michigan State | 34c | 48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Iowa | 67c | 47.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe566…9133backed Iowa | 54c | 40.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe651…4661backed Michigan State | 65c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…fb93backed Michigan State | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2433…10acbacked Michigan State | 39c | 35.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…ed4abacked Michigan State | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Iowa | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0374…99c7backed Iowa | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…b17abacked Michigan State | 73c | 27.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3304…7048backed Michigan State | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…8299backed Michigan State | 68c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 76cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan State vs. Iowathis page
- O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Iowa (-16.5)Michigan State won
- Spread: Iowa (-17.5)Michigan State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.