Tennis · resolved market
Antalya: Moyuka Uchijima vs Katarzyna Kawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5eb88e19f5219e4e0e136c85f8e4c92ba27ee39e57621ad498ebd95eb81e715d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Uchijimaof Uchijima, Kawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kawa | 15c | 3,540$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.83 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kawa | 15c | 3,539$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.79 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Uchijima | 74c | 726.81$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.26 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Kawa | 22c | 477.87$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.13 | 1,106 | 41%454 W · 652 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Kawa | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,130 | 27.9%315 W · 815 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…d57bbacked Kawa | 11c | 363.64$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Kawa | 29c | 342.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a73…a9c8backed Kawa | 18c | 306.83$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 625 | 34.4%215 W · 410 L | -20.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4d46backed Uchijima | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.27 | 1,841 | 48.5%892 W · 949 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f95…b08bbacked Uchijima | 70c | 267.4$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.29 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Kawa | 28c | 261.07$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Kawa | 27c | 256.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Kawa | 17c | 221.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Kawa | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 220 | 33.6%74 W · 146 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Kawa | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kawa | 16c | 181.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Kawa | 24c | 162.79$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Kawa | 32c | 147.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.63 | 1,245 | 33.9%422 W · 823 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe324…9189backed Uchijima | 66c | 111.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.36 | 206 | 64.1%132 W · 74 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf337…609abacked Kawa | 15c | 108.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 90 | 16.7%15 W · 75 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…5a90backed Uchijima | 74c | 104.04$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d9…ae6bbacked Kawa | 27c | 100.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Uchijima | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bec…37d3backed Uchijima | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 142 | 72.5%103 W · 39 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Kawa | 27c | 99.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 284 | 24.3%69 W · 215 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Kawa | 17c | 95.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Uchijima | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Uchijima | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Kawa | 28c | 63.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Uchijima | 70c | 48.42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192f…352bbacked Uchijima | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1793…4ebbbacked Uchijima | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 940 | 60.6%570 W · 370 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9894…65debacked Uchijima | 73c | 26.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Uchijima | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Uchijima | 78c | 14.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 290 | 63.8%185 W · 105 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.