Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: MVU (-1.5) vs Apex Mission Impossible (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f0b3628f8f1639080ea8678282dbe2ba47169b2159ca63389f8f495082938fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Maryville Universityof Maryville University, Apex Mission Impossible
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,261
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Apex Mission Impossible | 16c | 3,918$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.6 | 1,308 | 38.6%505 W · 803 L | -64.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Apex Mission Impossible | 20c | 2,500$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.95 | 1,368 | 37.7%516 W · 852 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Apex Mission Impossible | 18c | 1,575$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.81 | 2,226 | 37.5%834 W · 1,392 L | -29.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd507…a6ddbacked Apex Mission Impossible | 17c | 1,203$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 300 | 35%105 W · 195 L | -21.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Apex Mission Impossible | 18c | 910.01$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 376 | 47.9%180 W · 196 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac42…60d1backed Apex Mission Impossible | 17c | 753.5$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.74 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9919…f261backed Apex Mission Impossible | 16c | 681.25$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f12…3e35backed Apex Mission Impossible | 14c | 320$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 376 | 41.8%157 W · 219 L | -18.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Apex Mission Impossible | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 282 | 40.4%114 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Apex Mission Impossible | 18c | 205$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 1,241 | 34.7%431 W · 810 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fe…be09backed Apex Mission Impossible | 16c | 175$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Apex Mission Impossible | 16c | 120.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 242 | 35.5%86 W · 156 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4238…3734backed Apex Mission Impossible | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Apex Mission Impossible | 16c | 64.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: MVU (-1.5) vs Apex Mission Impossible (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Maryville University (BO3) - North American Challengers League Regular SeasonMaryville University won
- LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Maryville University - Game 1 WinnerMaryville University won
- LoL: Apex Mission Impossible vs Maryville University - Game 2 WinnerMaryville University won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.