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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Santa Clara Broncos vs. San Francisco Dons: O/U 157.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,444
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$27,332

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,444 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Under47c25,203$11,824 inLost-$11,823.6389645.9%411 W · 485 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over53c14,977$7,916 inWon+$7,061.3412,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Over54c6,000$3,210 inWon+$2,79048855.1%269 W · 219 L+17.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over53c4,496$2,403 inWon+$2,093.612,89650%1,448 W · 1,448 L+71.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Over54c600$324 inWon+$27616147.2%76 W · 85 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd23…e31fbacked Under46c391.57$180 inLost-$180.126752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Under46c389.58$179 inLost-$179.2113746.7%64 W · 73 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under46c389.58$179 inLost-$179.2174152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Over54c183.58$99 inWon+$84.441,25150.6%633 W · 618 L+12.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over55c165.28$91 inWon+$73.9360954.5%332 W · 277 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over55c149.99$82 inWon+$67.51,16255.2%641 W · 521 L+25.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Over54c91.79$50 inWon+$42.2283350.2%418 W · 415 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under45c42.03$19 inLost-$18.9185248.8%416 W · 436 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over54c36.69$20 inWon+$16.724857.3%142 W · 106 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a49…75bebacked Under46c31.75$15 inLost-$14.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Under45c29.74$13 inLost-$13.3823754.4%129 W · 108 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Over54c18.52$10 inWon+$8.5282846.1%382 W · 446 L+15.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over63c17.51$11 inWon+$6.484854.5%462 W · 386 L+32.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.