Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe74ccea3bf4b5ac0045abcf50e27ef8c08a11381a602aab76e78601e9b868618
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Santa Clara Broncosof Santa Clara Broncos, San Francisco Dons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked San Francisco Dons | 52c | 622.5$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.4 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…c6e4backed San Francisco Dons | 56c | 622.26$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.98 | 182 | 45.1%82 W · 100 L | -15.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Santa Clara Broncos | 47c | 581.88$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.4 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Santa Clara Broncos | 44c | 483.04$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.5 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93f…1e30backed San Francisco Dons | 56c | 354.06$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x363d…fe75backed Santa Clara Broncos | 50c | 198.25$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.13 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Santa Clara Broncos | 44c | 177.26$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.26 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Santa Clara Broncos | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 852 | 48.8%416 W · 436 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Santa Clara Broncos | 44c | 124.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Santa Clara Broncos | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Francisco Dons | 56c | 99.14$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.52 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b9…2adfbacked San Francisco Dons | 54c | 49.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 572 | 48.1%275 W · 297 L | -27.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-7.5)this page
- Santa Clara Broncos vs. San Francisco DonsSanta Clara Broncos won
- Santa Clara Broncos vs. San Francisco Dons: O/U 157.5Over won
- Santa Clara Broncos vs. San Francisco Dons: O/U 158.5Over won
- Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-6.5)Santa Clara Broncos won
- Spread: Santa Clara Broncos (-8.5)Santa Clara Broncos won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.