Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f34547a3fae7fd39bcfad4d9e02efe3da1b14b7d7ec16c40a4eccffbfe65b79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x491c…8c7ebacked Yes | 10c | 10,247$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,222.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…56dbbacked Yes | 9c | 4,840$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,404.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed No | 3c | 615.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 70c | 333.59$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.72 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…a6a4backed No | 39c | 138.2$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.25 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8365…9ae7backed Yes | 31c | 126.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +317.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fc…c6aabacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 30cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 30c | 99.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 96.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 90.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.41 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 78c | 71.75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 68c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 31c | 65.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.27 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3d3dbacked No | 68c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 47c | 53.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.9 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6622…e28bbacked Yes | 76c | 51.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 39c | 40.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7572…e484backed No | 74c | 39.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0967…0c60backed No | 69c | 36.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 188 | 60.1%113 W · 75 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 34.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 62c | 32.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 43c | 31.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9232…c250backed Yes | 47c | 30.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…54f7backed Yes | 55c | 28.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 65c | 28.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed No | 46c | 28.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed No | 79c | 22.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…edb3backed Yes | 64c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on February 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C or higher on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on February 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on February 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.