Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs. Wildcard
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f757e70363b9e099f916b361e5b465802c34b034dd4ad6eab7146f123e68a52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Wildcard
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea0f…23b1backed Wildcard | 8c | 22,500$1,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Wildcard | 0c | 3,215$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Wildcard | 9c | 1,817$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.68 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ea…6254backed Wildcard | 14c | 1,310$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Wildcard | 11c | 1,276$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Wildcard | 8c | 999.87$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x78a8…9850backed Wildcard | 8c | 350$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Wildcard | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Wildcard | 8c | 210$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…5a2dbacked Wildcard | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Wildcard | 14c | 184.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 197 | 43.1%85 W · 112 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672a…a966backed Wildcard | 18c | 120.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed PARIVISION | 79c | 119.22$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c3…ba20backed Wildcard | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x732b…3b02backed Wildcard | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Wildcard | 20c | 83.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.