NHL · resolved market
KHL: Avangard Omsk vs. Sibir Novosibirsk
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5f86e9398c6ec73fbbfbf1f50d2b8e476138622f25c5b8206d9e45f1231d9273
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Avangard Omskof Avangard Omsk, Sibir Novosibirsk
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Avangard Omsk | 76c | 511.08$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 7c | 390.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 165.9$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 150.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 204 | 47.1%96 W · 108 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Avangard Omsk | 79c | 127.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 123.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Avangard Omsk | 64c | 118$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 44c | 98.1$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Avangard Omsk | 57c | 87.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 315 | 40.3%127 W · 188 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Sibir Novosibirsk | 23c | 56.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 64c | 51.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Avangard Omsk | 76c | 43.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Sibir Novosibirsk | 24c | 43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 159 | 44.7%71 W · 88 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Avangard Omsk | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Avangard Omsk | 77c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 425 | 58.6%249 W · 176 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.